Information for the Racing Fan Wagering on the Derby

This is TRA™ attempt in providing brief information for the new racing enthusiast that picks the winner of the Kentucky Derby by either horse’s name, Derby Points, or Post Position. TRA™ doesn’t recommend using any of the below wagering methods.  

This year’s Derby names are exceptional. We took a small poll of the names most people would wager on this year. The results are in selected order:

  • Magnum Moon
  • Justify
  • Mendelssohn
  • Good Magic
  • My Boy Jack

New racing enthusiasts like to select the winner of the Derby by wagering on the horse with the most Derby points. This selection method makes sense due to the horse with most Derby Points must be the best of the field. What we found is since 2012, this year did not have Derby points, but we used the horse that would have been number one if the current point system was in place, till 2017.

Betting on the horse with most Derby Points method the racing fan would have cashed a winning ticket twice. The two times would have been on California Chrome in 2014 and Orb in 2013.

Derby winner since 2012, their amount of Derby Points, and their Leaderboard ranking:

  • 2017 Always Dreaming – 100 pts. – 6th
  • 2016 Nyquist – 130 pts. – 2nd
  • 2015 American Pharoah – 160 pts. – 4th
  • 2014 California Chrome – 150 pts. – 1st
  • 2013 Orb – 150 pts. -1st
  • 2012 I’ll Have Another – 110 – 4th

Horse with the most 2018 Derby Points is Magnum Moon with 150 points.

New racing enthusiasts also like to select the winner of the Derby by wagering on their lucky number.  This is not a bad method if your lucky number happens to be 5. Horse starting from the Post Position 5 since 2000 have the best results with four wins, one second and two thirds. The very worst number is Post Position 17. Since 2000 no wager on a horse from Post Position 17 has been cashed, no wins, seconds or thirds. Horses on the rail have the shortest distance to run which helps increase the racing fan chances of cashing if their lucky number is between 1-10. The record from 2012 till 2017 shows that horses in Post Positions 1-10 have finished in the top three eleven times. Over the same time frame, Derby Post Positions between 1-8 had a horse finished on the board each Derby. While the racing fan whose lucky number is between 11-20 their chance of cashing at ticket is less. Horse staring in Post Positions 11 – 20 during the same time only had 7 in the top three finishers.  The best outside Post Positions is 15, which in this 6- year time frame has recorded 3 wins.

TRA™ wishes all racing fans lots of wagering luck in using any of these methods in selecting their Derby winner. TRA™ doesn’t recommend using any of the above wagering methods.



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