Improbable heads up the first division of the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes, with the other division slated as Race 10 on Saturday’s card. Both races will award $750,000 purses and Kentucky Derby 2019 qualifying points on a 37.5-15-7.5-3.75 scale to the Top 4 finishers.
Race 8: Rebel Stakes (GII). For three-year-old at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Purse $750,000.
|1||Extra Hope||Mike Smith||Richard Mandella||6/1|
|2||Long Range Toddy||Jon Court||Steve Asmussen||10/1|
|3||Corruze||Stewart Elliott||Chris Hartman||30/1|
|4||Easy Shot||Richard E. Eramia||Keith Desormeaux||15/1|
|5||Proud Nation||David Cabrera||Joe Sharp||50/1|
|6||Ninth Street||Ricardo Santana, Jr.||Steve Asmussen||50/1|
|7||Classy John||David Cohen||Dallas Stewart||15/1|
|8||Galilean||Flavien Prat||Jerry Hollendorfer||3/1|
|9||Improbable||Drayden Van Dyke||Bob Baffert||3/5|
Extra Hope ran third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (GI) in December. In his lone start this year, he won an allowance race at Santa Anita over a sloppy track going a mile. He should be stalking the pace setters down the back stretch. He should finish in the top six.
Long Range Toddy won the Springboard Mile and then found two rough outings. He has 18 Derby points earned in three consecutive starts. He should be stalking the pace setters down the back stretch. He will try to catch the leaders around the quarter pole. He should finish in the top five.
Corruze raced on the turf in his last two starts at Fair Grounds. He has either won or missed the board in his brief career, with both victories’ sprints. He will be forwardly placed trying to set the early fractions. He will not be competitive against this level of competition. He will not be a factor at the wire.
Easy Shot ran third-place finishes, one in the Sham (GIII) and another one in the Robert B. Lewis (GIII) at Santa Anita. He had tough/ rough outings in both races. His only victory was in a maiden claiming race at Del Mar. He could finish in the top five.
Proud Nation is a maiden. He finished second in his first two starts as a 2-year-old but ran a distant ninth in his 2019 debut in February over this course. He will not be competitive against this level of competition. He will not be a factor at the wire.
Ninth Street has a first and a second in stakes races at Delta Downs, but he faded badly in the stretch when he stepped up to the Southwest Stakes (GIII). He will not be competitive against the top three horses in the field. He has a chance of finishing in the top six.
Classy John has a five start record of 3-2-0 with earnings of $191,650. While competing in state-bred stakes races at Fair Grounds and Delta Downs, he put together two wins and a second. He will be facing graded stakes competition not state-bred competition. He should be on the board.
Galilean has a four race record of 3-1-0 with earnings of $261,000. He raced and won against state-bred competition in California. He destroyed the field by open-length in his last two starts. He should have a fitness advantage since his last race was on February 18. He should be forwardly placed and set comfortable fraactions. He should finish in top three.
Improbable won all starts as a 2-year-old. He likes to sit in behind the leaders in a stalking position. He enters this race with four bullet six-furlong works plus two bullet works at 5/8. He should be sitting directly behind the leaders going down the back stretch. He should start moving forward around the turn for home. He will battle for the lead down the stretch. He should finish in the top two.
Our Top Three Picks:
- Classy John