Review of Santa Ynez ,Grade II, at Santa Anita on Jan. 6,2019

Race 8. Santa Ynez Stakes , Grade II. For three-year-old fillies at seven furlongs on dirt. Purse $200,000.

The winner will receive 10 qualifying points to the Kentucky Oaks, Grade I, at Churchill Downs on May 3.

Entries:

PP Filly Jockey Trainer M/L
1 Mother Mother Drayden Van Dyke Bob Baffert 9/5
2 Bellafina Flavien Prat Simon Callaghan 4/5
3 Sold It Mario Gutierrez Doug O’Neill 8/1
4 Tomlin Tyler Baze Steven Specht 8/1
5 Reflect Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 6/1

The Santa Ynez has the look of a competitive stakes contest with no horse receiving double digit morning line odds.

The five entries are:

Bellafina has won two Grade I races; Chandelier Stakes and Del Mar Debutante Stakes. She ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Her career record for five starts is 3-1-0.

Mother Mother a Black type Stakes winner. She ran third in the Starlet Stakes, Grade I. Her career record for four starts is 2-1-1. Both Bellafina and Mother Mother are cutting back in distance in the Santa Ynez Stakes.

Sold It pressed the early pace going two turns in Grade I company last time out.

Tomlin recently won the Golden Gate Fields.

Reflect placed in a Grade I stakes.

Bellafina

Video

Bellafina had an easy 6 1/2 lengths win in the Grade I Chandelier Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita Sept. 29. She was the 9-5 favorite in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at the same distance on Nov. 2. She finished fourth, beaten 9 1/4 lengths. She was bumped leaving the gate. Despite the setback, she is the 4/5 morning line favorite in the Santa Ynez. She should capture the 10 qualifying points to the Kentucky Oaks on May 3.

Mother Mother

Mother Mother was second, beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Bellafina three starts back in the Grade I Del Mar Debutante going seven furlongs on Sept. 1. She was the gate to wire winner of a one turn mile stakes at Churchill Downs Oct. 28.  In her most recent start, the Grade I Starlet going 1 1/16 miles at Los Alamitos Dec. 8, she made the lead and finished third, beaten a neck by highly regarded stablemate Chasing Yesterday.  She won debut by 6 1/2 lengths four starts back on July 22. She should be either the pace setter or sitting within a length of the leaders. She will be in the top three.

Sold It

Sold It was fifth, beaten four lengths in the Grade I Starlet after pressing the early pace. She broke her maiden going five furlongs on turf two starts back on Nov. 15. She should enjoy dropping back to a sprinting distance and be able to be near the front. She was a respectable first-out third, beaten five lengths as the even money favorite in a 6 1/2 furlongs maiden special weight here Oct. 14. Her short career record for three starts is 1-0-1.

Tomlin

Tomlin has won five of her three Golden Gate starts, including her most recent, a 2 1/2 length win in the Golden Gate Debutante on Nov. 23 going six furlongs. Golden Gate Debutante on Nov. 23.  With all three of her wins coming at sprint distances on synthetic Tapeta. The predicted forecast for rain fall on Sunday increases her chances to finish in top three.

Reflect

Reflect broke her maiden at Santa Anita on June 7. Since then she has raced in five Grade I or Grade II Stakes races. Her best finish was in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes, Grade I, at Keenland on October 5. She ran eight in her last outing the Golden Rod Stakes, Grade II, at Churchill Downs on November 24. She likes to run off the pace and run down the leaders around the quarter pole. Her career record for six starts is 1-1. She needs to drop down in class to be competitive. She should not be a factor.

Our Top Three Picks:

  • Bellafina
  • Mother Mother
  • Tomlin

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